Soros said: “When I saw the bubble, I will buy. Wait until the bubble is mature, it will sell.”
The financial predators in the previous dialogue session in Hong Kong a few words, has triggered an unlimited audience guess Soros mind where the next bubble.
Recently, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a number of hedge fund company was involved in a joint attack by the euro survey, the survey included a subsidiary of Soros Soros Fund Management, 约翰鲍尔森 subsidiary Paulson & Co, as well as SAC Capital Advisors, and Greenlight Capital hedge, etc. Fund.
In short the euro, the Soros obsolete in the eyes of the predators will be what he is buying anything, sell anything?
Gold is the ultimate asset bubble?
According to Soros “bubble theory” must be found when the bubble options to buy, but after the formation of such waves can fall short.
Soros’s Fund has announced to set up offices in Hong Kong, and subsequently announced plans to send two home here in Hong Kong, namely, a former managing director of the Asia Tiger Fund, James Chang, and following years, Soros Dai Jixin. Prior to the Hong Kong market speculation, taking advantage of the previous decline, Soros’s funds have begun a secret Jiancang to attract Hong Kong blue chips, so the future or is likely to short-selling Hong Kong stocks?
In this regard, Hengsheng asset management companies (Persistent Asset) Executive Director Wu Yunpeng In an interview with newspaper reporters laughed, “I think that technically there is no such possibility, short H shares have no meaning because it is now only 12 times the valuation of Dynamic PE, is already very cheap, and while interest rates are very low. ”
Hengsheng is a specialized asset management company to do the hedge fund of funds (Fund of hedge funds), a global hedge fund in 2008, the most miserable time of market conditions, is the world’s only achieved a positive return of funds. Wu Yunpeng that now the macroeconomic situation in 1997 is completely different this year, China has substantial economic growth, GDP also exceeded 10%, the stock market bubble did not exist.
“May appear in the area of commodities bubble, because the price rose too high, especially gold, once the fall could be significant. These two years the price of gold rose, partly due to financial innovation, ordinary investors can ETF hold gold, pushing up the price of gold. “Wu Yunpeng said.
In fact, the Wu Yunpeng judgments make known its position coincides with the Soros recently. Soros said that the current worldwide interest rates are at an extremely low level, for the formation of asset bubbles created favorable conditions for the ultimate asset bubbles is gold, but gold bubble will continue for some time.
Data show that Soros bet double gold, and he runs Soros Fund Management to invest heavily in the fourth quarter last year, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust, an investment than the original investment amount increased by 152%, making it only Gold ETF’s fourth largest investor.
However, Barclays Capital commodities analyst Ying-xi I do not agree with the forecast on gold is a bubble, and she estimated that gold remained stable this year, the annual average of about 1180 U.S. dollars an ounce, as the central bank buying of gold scattered reserve currency, as well as hedge funds, Stock Exchange listed fund (ETF) such as right in the long-term investment in gold, are making will become a diversified investment portfolio of gold assets, driven by investment demand, gold rise or fall.
Excessive leverage Quantum Fund
Debt is spreading in Europe, so Europe and the United States both have stepped up their financial markets, speculation concerns. Survey area in the European Union announced that the sovereign bond credit default swaps (CDS) transactions, the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust division also trading of euro contract agreement between the hedge fund investigation, and require the involvement of hedge funds retain all euro and foreign exchange transaction documents and electronic transaction protocol. Soros’s hedge fund is one of the objects under investigation.
Origins of early February this year, something, more than star hedge fund managers have attended meetings with a brainstorming dinner, with the participating fund managers are expected, the euro fell against the dollar have the opportunity to again. The results a week after dinner, right down the futures contracts betting the euro increased to 6 million copies in 1999, the largest since the establishment of the euro for a week.
Wu Yunpeng said, hedge funds shorting the euro, in fact, bet on the so-called European five pigs (PIIGS, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) debt continued to deteriorate. Currency investments done, if the judge was right earn a lot, otherwise, it is a great mistake, “so our currency, weights very low. We do not invest in Quantum Fund, because the Quantum Fund leverage is very high.”
Hengsheng is currently in Asia, the world, Greater China Fund’s total size of 3 10 billion U.S. dollars, Wu Yunpeng said that, since only the hedge fund over the world to report regularly to the Hengsheng its investment dynamics, and so we will know all the information together the the global capital flows.
“This year’s first quarter, cash flow without direction, direction of the second quarter, were not evident. Comparison of the second half of funds will determine the direction. So let us in the first quarter of this year, investment is mainly to exchange-traded funds. While in the second quarter, we plan to gradually join the investment in China, Taiwan and Japan funds. because the next 10 years can really bring about excess profits is a new technology enterprises in Taiwan there are many such small businesses. In addition, QDII can invest in Taiwan is also a good news. Taiwan’s stock market liquidity is poor in the past, QDII is estimated that their mobility after the entry will become good. “Wu Yunpeng said.
As for the second half of this year, Wu Yunpeng said that because the U.S. mid-term elections in years ending in many cases around the mid-term elections to reform is speculation, and in the general election after the end of the financial markets will stabilize. Europe, Greece, events, another two or three months will be resolved. China will raise interest rates and processing deposit reserve, to the March performance of many enterprises in 2009 will be announced, when there will be a market for broader macroeconomic picture, the investment direction will be more determined.
Over the past three years, Hengsheng Asia, the world, Greater China Fund, a comprehensive three-year return of 23.91%, mean achievement compared with the same period, the HFRI FOF Composite return of only 0.91%, MSCI World Index, compared with -3.93%, S & P 500 index -5.34%, the Hang Seng index 7.99 percent, Singapore’s Straits Times Index 2.74%.